2026
Timelines moved closer
Everyone who updated between January and April 2026 moved their estimate earlier.
Milestones on the line · GENERAL INTELLIGENCE
AGI
A system that handles most jobs at least as well as a competent human — including jobs it was never specifically prepared for.
Forecasters cluster on 2027–2033 with a long tail past 2040. The spread is enormous, and much of the argument is about definitions.
StatusLOCKED
TypeMilestones on the line
Marker?
What exists today5
In progress
2026
The spread stays enormous
Researcher surveys put 50% probability near 2047; professional forecasters mass on 2027–2033.
2026
The academic objection
Stanford faculty insist there is no AGI in 2026 and call for evaluation over evangelism.
Planned
в планах
Agreeing on a definition
Labs and academia use different criteria. Without a shared yardstick, "achieved" will be declared before it happens.
Distant horizons
впереди
The economic test
The most honest check is the share of jobs a system completes end to end and gets paid for by the market rather than a jury.
Milestones on the line
To the line