Forecasters cluster on 2027–2033 with a long tail past 2040. The spread is enormous, and much of the argument is about definitions.
About this eventIn the AI Futures sample, estimates updated in early 2026 shifted earlier, but this is not a scientific consensus.
AGI forecasts are highly sensitive to definitions, expert sampling and recent model demonstrations. A shift in several estimates is useful as a sentiment indicator but does not prove acceleration on a measurable scale, so the map separates forecasts from confirmed technological milestones.
Source: AI FuturesAbout this eventResearcher surveys put 50% probability near 2047; professional forecasters mass on 2027–2033.
About this eventStanford faculty insist there is no AGI in 2026 and call for evaluation over evangelism.
About this eventLabs and academia use different criteria. Without a shared yardstick, "achieved" will be declared before it happens.
About this eventThe most honest check is the share of jobs a system completes end to end and gets paid for by the market rather than a jury.
Primary material behind this dossier: papers, lab publications and official reports.