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Capabilities on the main line · CAPACITY LIMIT

Compute and power bottleneck

In one viewAI capability is constrained by more than algorithms. Chips, memory, data centres, electrical grids and cooling determine which models can be trained and how many runs the economy can sustain.

This does not imply that more gigawatts automatically produce AGI. The resource gate makes the opposite point: without efficiency and accessible infrastructure, even a strong architecture cannot scale into everyday use.

StatusUNSOLVED
TypeCapabilities on the main line
Marker?
Events in dossier4
Development chronology

In progress

сейчас

Accelerator and memory scarcity

About this eventLeading accelerator and HBM production remains concentrated and cannot instantly follow demand.

Modern AI performance is set by the whole system: accelerators, high-bandwidth memory, networking and software. If one layer cannot scale, expensive compute units sit idle, so nominal FLOPS are not the same as usable capacity.

Source: NVIDIA · Rubin platform
сейчас

Power as the project clock

About this eventConnecting a new data centre to the grid can take longer than building its computing halls.

The IEA identifies electricity as a local infrastructure constraint for data centres: capacity is concentrated in a few clusters while grids and generation expand more slowly than compute halls. The next scale-up is therefore timed not only by chip delivery but by the physical connection of megawatts.

Source 1: IEA · Energy and AISource 2: IEA · key questions 2026

Planned

в планах

Efficiency over brute force

About this eventSparse computation, quantisation and specialised accelerators reduce the cost of one useful result.

Distant horizons

впереди

A sustainable compute loop

About this eventPower, grids and cooling scale with systems without externalising the cost into energy and water scarcity.

Sources and research

Primary material behind this dossier: papers, lab publications and official reports.

Capabilities on the main line