Extrapolation stops working here. No single branch leads to this point alone: continual learning, verifiability, physical grounding and an accessible compute base would all be required at once.
About this eventSam Altman described superintelligence as possible within a few thousand days, not as a dated forecast.
The phrase frames a direction of debate rather than a calendar. The source provides no testable date, definition of ASI or achievement criteria, so the map treats it as an industry view rather than an event or release promise.
Source: Sam Altman · The Intelligence AgeAbout this eventDario Amodei argues human-level is within a few years; Demis Hassabis puts genuine AGI a few years out, not here.
About this eventThe mechanism this point is about: a system accelerating its own development. It turns progress from linear into unpredictable.
About this eventThe higher the capability, the more a goal mismatch costs. Not philosophy but an engineering requirement on the reliability gate.
Primary material behind this dossier: papers, lab publications and official reports.