2026-Q2
Optimus Gen 3 at Fremont
24/7 work on live tasks: battery module assembly, parts kitting, final-assembly assist. Tesla publishes no production figures of its own.
Branches · BODY
General-purpose robots
A robot nobody programs for each individual operation: it looks, understands the task and does it — assembling batteries today, carrying boxes tomorrow.
2026 is the first year humanoids run real production tasks rather than demo cells. The bottleneck is transferring skill between tasks.
Status
TypeBranches
Marker
What exists today8
Researched
2026
Figure: 10,000+ deployments
Figure and Agility hold the best-verified deployment records in partner warehouses.
2026-06
Physical AI in one model
Cosmos 3 merges scene reasoning with action generation — a general policy instead of a script library.
In progress
сейчас
The Chinese price
Chinese manufacturers are cutting platform cost by an order of magnitude. Volume will likely come from there.
препятствие
Data hunger
The bottleneck is not hardware but the hours of human teleoperation a policy learns from — hence the bet on simulation.
Planned
в планах
Cost threshold
For physical labour to become copyable, a humanoid must cost less than a year of wages. Not yet true.
в планах
Hands, not legs
Walking is solved; grasping an arbitrary object with the right force is not. The hand decides what a robot can do.
Distant horizons
впереди
Labour as a copyable resource
A skill learned by one robot instantly distributed to all the others — something never possible with people.
Branches off
To the line