Milestones on the line · ACCESS

Open weights

Strong models became something you can download and run on your own hardware — no internet, no subscription, no owner's permission.

Near-frontier models became downloadable and self-hostable. Access to strong AI stopped depending on a single vendor.

StatusPASSED
TypeMilestones on the line
Marker2025
What exists today6

Researched

2023

Mixtral 8×7B

Open-weight sparse mixture of experts: dense-model quality without dense-model cost.

verified
2024

Llama 3.1 405B

The first open model comparable in scale to the closed frontier.

verified
2025

DeepSeek-V3 and R1

Strong reasoning at a radically lower training cost.

verified
2025

Qwen 3

A dense open family for every hardware budget.

verified

In progress

сейчас

A six-month lag

Open models trail closed ones by roughly six to twelve months, and the gap keeps opening and closing.

NEW

Planned

в планах

Rules for releasing weights

Regulators are debating which capabilities must not be published irreversibly. Nobody has clear lines yet.

NEW
Branches
Milestones on the line
To the line

Track the line as it moves

Once a week: which branches advanced, what unlocked, and what turned out to be overstated.